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Introduction
What is a good decision
Course Concept
Steps of analysis of decisions
Elements of decision making
Decision Trees and Risk Profiles
Introduction
A Decision Tree Example
Interpretation
EV or EMV
Example 1
Decision Strategies
Example 2
Risk Profiles
Example 3
Deterministic Dominance
Stochastic Dominance
Example 4
Sensivity Analysis
Introduction
Cost Calculation
Eagle Airlines Example-Intro
Eagle Airlines-Cost Calculation
Eagle Airlines- Sensivity Analysis: Spider Diagram
Eagle Airlines-Cost Calculation :Tornado Diagram
Two way sensivity Analysis -Example
Sample Exam Question I
Exam Like Question 1
Exam Like Question 2
Exam Like Question 3
Exam Like Question 4
Exam Like Question 5
Exam Like Question 6
Probability Review and Bayes Theorem
Conditioning Events
Total Probability Rule
Example 1
Example 2
Bayes' Rule
Bayes' Rule Example 1
Bayes' Rule Example 2
Modelling Uncertainity and Value of Information
Introduction
Calculation of EVPI
Some notes about EVPI
Example EVPI
EVII or EVSI
Example EVII
Subjective Probability
Introduction
Assessing Subjective Probebilities
Example 1
Fractiles
Extended Pearson-Tukey
Bracket Medians
Inverse Transform Method
Example 2
Monte Carlo Simulation
Example 3
Example 4
Heuristics and Biases
Introduction
Bounded Rationality
Availability Heuristics
Representativeness Heuristics
Anchoring and Insufficient Adjustment
Framing
Mental Accountig
Sample Exam Question II
Exam Like Question 1
Exam Like Question 2
Exam Like Question 3
Exam Like Question 4
Exam Like Question 5
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