IE 302 • Production Systems Analysis • Midterm

Forecasting

Error in Forecasts

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Example

Components of the Data

Moving Averages Method

Moving Averages Example

Exponential Smoothing Method

Exponential Smoothing Example

Summary

Regression Analysis

Regression Analysis Example

Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's Method)

Double Exponential Smoothing Example

Summary

Seasonal Data with No Trend

Example

Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winter's Method)

Seasonal Factors

Example

Summary

Economic Order Quantity

Cost Components

Example 1

Example 2

Lead Time

Example 3

Finite Production Rate

Example 1

Example 2

Total Cost Formula

Optimal Solution

Example 1

All Units Discounts

Example 1

Example 2

Incremental Discounts

Example 3

Example 4

Newsvendor Problem

Cost Calculation and Optimal Solution

Example 1

Additional Values

Example 2

Lot Size-Reorder Level (Q,R) Model

Optimal Solution

Example 1

Extra Quantities

Example 2

Service Levels

Given Type 1 Service Level

Given Type 2 Service Level (SU)

Given Type 2 Service Level (Others)

Lead Time Variability

Q System

Example 3

P System

Example 4

(s,S) Policy

Service Levels in (s,S) Policy

Forecasting Stationary Series 1

Forecasting Stationary Series 2

Forecasting Trend Series 1

Forecasting Stationary Series 2

Forecasting Seasonal Series 1

Forecasting Seasonal Series 2

Forecasting Seasonal Series 3

Basic EOQ 1

Basic EOQ 2

Basic EOQ 3

Basic EOQ + Lead Time 1

Basic EOQ + Lead Time 2

EPQ 1

EPQ 2

EPQ 3

EPQ 4

EOQ with Backorders 1

EOQ with Backorders 2

All Units Discount 1

Incremental Discount 1

Newsvendor Model 1

Newsvendor Model 2

Newsvendor Model 3

Newsvendor Model 4

(Q, R) Model 1

(Q, R) Model 2

(Q, R) Model 3

Service Levels in (Q, R) Policy

Lead Time Variability & (s,S) Policy

Service Levels in (s,S) Policy