INDR 372 • Midterm • Production Planning and Control

Forecasting

Error in Forecasts

Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)

Mean Squared Error (MSE)

Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)

Example

Components of the Data

Moving Averages Method

Example

Exponential Smoothing Method

Example

Double Exponential Smoothing (Holt's Method)

Example

Triple Exponential Smoothing (Winter's Method)

Seasonal Factors

Example

Demand as a Random Variable

Stationary Series: MA

Stationary Series: Exponential Smoothing

Trend Series

Autocorrelation and Auto-Regression

AR, MA and ARMA

Which one to use?

Data Transformations

ARIMA Notation

Regression

Trend and Seasonality

Testing in Regression

Further Issues

Introduction

Zero Inventory Strategy

Example 1

Example 2

Constant Workforce Plan

Example 3

Example 4

Forecasting Methods 1

Forecasting Methods 2

Forecasting Methods 3

Forecasting Methods 4

Forecasting Methods 5

Time Series Analysis 1

Time Series Analysis 2

Time Series Analysis 3

Time Series Analysis 4

Time Series Analysis 5

Time Series Analysis 6

ARIMA Framework 1

ARIMA Framework 2

ARIMA Framework 3

ARIMA Framework 4

ARIMA Framework 5

Regression Analysis 1

Regression Analysis 2

Regression Analysis 3

Regression Analysis 4

Aggregate Production Planning 1

Aggregate Production Planning 2

Aggregate Production Planning 3

Aggregate Production Planning 4